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Unquestioned Brilliance Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap John Austin 9780996703703 Books

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Unquestioned Brilliance Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap John Austin 9780996703703 Books

Author Dr John Austin, is an occasional teacher at some of the finest business schools in the US, and consults to Fortune 500 companies. In this book he shares techniques he uses with leaders, all of which are based on solid research on cognition, decision-making, strategic thinking, and organizational change.

Unquestioned brilliance, the title of this book, is the consequence of having been successful in the past, leading to confidence in one’s intelligence and viewpoints. However, the downside is the real possibility of not even considering other, better points of view or solutions. This is not an indication that leaders are egotistical megalomaniacs, Austin explains, but rather that leaders are human, as all of us struggle with balancing ignorance of what we don’t know, with the overconfidence in what we want to believe we do know.

There is exhaustive research that proves that we actively search for information that matches our expectations, and discount disconfirming evidence – especially when we have made our thoughts public. I will introduce just two of Austin’s many techniques that I feel sure will assist leaders at all levels, in organizations of all sizes, to deal with the leadership problem of “unquestioned brilliance”.

The first technique is “Uncertainty Vectoring”.
We are all very poor at predicting what the future might hold for ourselves, our families and our businesses. However, our lives require that we plan for the future. The solution, Austin believes is “to stop trying to predict and start trying to anticipate possibilities.” To do this, a useful technique is the development of multiple scenarios, mainly because this method overrides our overconfidence in a “most likely future.”

“Uncertainty vectoring” takes scenario planning further, by mapping high-impact uncertainties. From such a map, the impact of the combination of various uncertainties can be seen. Now, many more “what-if” questions about the future reveal themselves. Of course, to identify these uncertainties, you must have the correct people active in the process - people with enough knowledge about the environment, to ensure the process is grounded in reality.

The starting point of uncertainty mapping is to first clarify the areas of focus and time-horizon you are examining. Then you can identify key uncertainties that flow from politics, economics, sociology, technology, environment, legal, global, and other relevant issues. It is from such a list that the group can identify the ten highest-impact uncertainties on the end point, on the path to it, and on the time frame.

From this list of uncertainties, it is now possible to identify your current situation on the uncertainty continuum, as well as the blind spots in your thinking. This mapping of uncertainties enables monitoring.

Many organizations dedicate much of their planning time to tracking trends, but not to tracking high-impact uncertainties. The display of uncertainties as a collection of vectors, is a helpful and practical way to monitor their shifts over time. Identifying the uncertainties reduces the risk of either/or thinking which only exacerbates the “unquestioned brilliance” problem.

Another of Austin’s techniques for this purpose is the “backward-forward flip.” Its value lies in the appreciation of how a problem’s definition influences the options we generate to solve it. Austin explains that peoples’ bias is to look for evidence that confirms we are correct. “The backward-forward flip is a simple exercise designed to get a group to simultaneously consider being wrong and right.”

To illustrate this technique, consider the surprisingly rapid rise of online book purchases in the US.

While the rise of internet book-buying appears to have been the result of the rise of Amazon, it began with the amazing success of large, destination, social experience bookstores, such as Barnes & Noble, and Borders Books. These super-bookstores raised the expectation that any book you wish to buy, should be available. This expectation led to the rapid success of Amazon, and caught the other booksellers off-guard.

The second step in ‘backward/forward flip’ is to find justifications for the conventional wisdom that explains why online shopping should not have eroded bookshops’ position. These justifications could include that people want to touch books before buying them, and they enjoy browsing and discovering new books in the store. Industry consolidation made discounts from scale possible, and this ability should have kept out new entrants. And if companies should venture online, it should be the incumbents, not the new entrant.

The third step is to identify why industry experts were so wrong. Among these mistakes was to conflate book-buying and browsing, when they are two different things. Add to that the ISBN number book system, that made finding books easier.

Step four is the consideration of the high-impact shift in the industry as a result of these changes. These could include that people are now used to reading text digitally, screen quality is good, tablets are ubiquitous, and e-books are cheaper than paper. This would lead to the conclusion that the digital retailing of books is a permanent fixture.

The last step is to identify why a shift from e-books may occur. Possible answers to this could include that there is a trend towards authentic consumerism according to which, paper books are becoming desirable again. Tablets are increasingly viewed as a distraction, rather than a feature for readers.

The last step in the forward/backward flip method is to consider the probability that the factors identified in the previous step could occur. Additionally, what would be indicators of that change? Who stands to benefit from such a change, and what are they doing to move matters in their direction?

“The techniques described in this book will not automatically make you a great leader, but they will potentially help you navigate your team on a path that avoids this dysfunctional cycle (of unquestionable brilliance and its traps),” Austin asserts. The techniques do reveal the unquestioned assumptions and blind spots that can occur in current initiatives, preferably before they lead to unquestionable failure.

This is a well written and well-researched, practical guide for leaders and trainers of leaders, complete with a dozen or more techniques and even includes tips for facilitators.

Readability Light ----+ Serious
Insights High +---- Low
Practical High +---- Low

Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.


Tags : Unquestioned Brilliance: Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap [John Austin] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. <ul><li> <b>Finalist, 2016 Eric Hoffer Book Awards</b></li><li><b>Finalist, 4th Annual Beverly Hills Book Awards</b></li><li><b>Bronze Medal Winner,John Austin,Unquestioned Brilliance: Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap,Fisher Baldwin Press,0996703705,Business & Economics Leadership,Business Economics Finance,Leadership

Unquestioned Brilliance Navigating a Fundamental Leadership Trap John Austin 9780996703703 Books Reviews

Fantastic read for leaders looking to incorporate sound theories backed by academic rigor.
As an accomplished healthcare leader, I have found the techniques outlined in this book valuable, insightful, theory based, and a great addition to your leadership tool box.
Great book with helpful techniques to avoid the Unquestioned Brillance trap. The business world is ever changing and you have to adjust to stay in business and succeed. This book will stay in my pile of "Go To" books and I'm sure I'll refer to it over and over.
John Austin is an exceptional writer. He has the ability to translate academic research into practical and useful knowledge. He also has a subtle wit that comes through in unlikely places.

I first learned of his work several years ago when I read a now classic article he published in the Journal of Applied Behavioral Sciences on the visionary leadership of Branch Rickey in the way he orchestrated the integration of baseball. Usually Jackie Robinson gets all the attention but few recognize the subtle and artful strategic leadership of Branch Rickey. Austin's article is now a classic in understanding change leadership.

So when I heard that he has written a book I purchased it immediately. I was not disappointed. He does a masterful job of telling stories and weaving in concepts, theories, and practical tools. I would recommend this book to leaders in all sectors.
Left to our well-honed, pattern-seeking tendencies, we will begin paying attention to those parts of our environment that fit our frames. Just as significant, we will ignore or downplay those parts of our environment that do not fit our frame. Not only is our brilliance unquestioned, it is inappropriately reinforced by our search for evidence, according to John Austin in this book.

Rather than concentrating on the psychological reasons for the blindness which leaders suffer from, the author provides a number of tools for re-framing and broadening perspectives in the hope of reaching better decisions, including

• Blind-spot centering creating a map of assumptions including alternative assumptions generated by imagining that current dominant assumptions are incorrect
• Uncertainty vectoring systematically considering possible interactions among high-impact uncertainties
• The backward-forward flip simultaneously considering being wrong and right
• TAP analysis analyzing tasks, abilities and persons on teams
• GSO decision making making decisions using the generate-synthesize-own model
• Stakeholder mapping mapping stakeholders in various ways including according to the salience attributes of power, urgency and legitimacy
• Tension tracking identifying and monitoring the competing demands being managed within the organisation
• The HERE snapshot a framework for quick assessment of a new situation helpers, end-game, reconnaissance, errors
• Reverse default setting identify your default prediction and consider what the difference would be if the opposite turns out to be true

From my own observations I would agree that the leaders of most organisations do consistently fail to consider all relevant options when making decisions. Leaders and managers could in almost all cases broaden their frame of reference and increase the likelihood of a good decision by adopting one or more of the tools proposed by the author. This is the sort of book which should be consulted frequently.
Author Dr John Austin, is an occasional teacher at some of the finest business schools in the US, and consults to Fortune 500 companies. In this book he shares techniques he uses with leaders, all of which are based on solid research on cognition, decision-making, strategic thinking, and organizational change.

Unquestioned brilliance, the title of this book, is the consequence of having been successful in the past, leading to confidence in one’s intelligence and viewpoints. However, the downside is the real possibility of not even considering other, better points of view or solutions. This is not an indication that leaders are egotistical megalomaniacs, Austin explains, but rather that leaders are human, as all of us struggle with balancing ignorance of what we don’t know, with the overconfidence in what we want to believe we do know.

There is exhaustive research that proves that we actively search for information that matches our expectations, and discount disconfirming evidence – especially when we have made our thoughts public. I will introduce just two of Austin’s many techniques that I feel sure will assist leaders at all levels, in organizations of all sizes, to deal with the leadership problem of “unquestioned brilliance”.

The first technique is “Uncertainty Vectoring”.
We are all very poor at predicting what the future might hold for ourselves, our families and our businesses. However, our lives require that we plan for the future. The solution, Austin believes is “to stop trying to predict and start trying to anticipate possibilities.” To do this, a useful technique is the development of multiple scenarios, mainly because this method overrides our overconfidence in a “most likely future.”

“Uncertainty vectoring” takes scenario planning further, by mapping high-impact uncertainties. From such a map, the impact of the combination of various uncertainties can be seen. Now, many more “what-if” questions about the future reveal themselves. Of course, to identify these uncertainties, you must have the correct people active in the process - people with enough knowledge about the environment, to ensure the process is grounded in reality.

The starting point of uncertainty mapping is to first clarify the areas of focus and time-horizon you are examining. Then you can identify key uncertainties that flow from politics, economics, sociology, technology, environment, legal, global, and other relevant issues. It is from such a list that the group can identify the ten highest-impact uncertainties on the end point, on the path to it, and on the time frame.

From this list of uncertainties, it is now possible to identify your current situation on the uncertainty continuum, as well as the blind spots in your thinking. This mapping of uncertainties enables monitoring.

Many organizations dedicate much of their planning time to tracking trends, but not to tracking high-impact uncertainties. The display of uncertainties as a collection of vectors, is a helpful and practical way to monitor their shifts over time. Identifying the uncertainties reduces the risk of either/or thinking which only exacerbates the “unquestioned brilliance” problem.

Another of Austin’s techniques for this purpose is the “backward-forward flip.” Its value lies in the appreciation of how a problem’s definition influences the options we generate to solve it. Austin explains that peoples’ bias is to look for evidence that confirms we are correct. “The backward-forward flip is a simple exercise designed to get a group to simultaneously consider being wrong and right.”

To illustrate this technique, consider the surprisingly rapid rise of online book purchases in the US.

While the rise of internet book-buying appears to have been the result of the rise of , it began with the amazing success of large, destination, social experience bookstores, such as Barnes & Noble, and Borders Books. These super-bookstores raised the expectation that any book you wish to buy, should be available. This expectation led to the rapid success of , and caught the other booksellers off-guard.

The second step in ‘backward/forward flip’ is to find justifications for the conventional wisdom that explains why online shopping should not have eroded bookshops’ position. These justifications could include that people want to touch books before buying them, and they enjoy browsing and discovering new books in the store. Industry consolidation made discounts from scale possible, and this ability should have kept out new entrants. And if companies should venture online, it should be the incumbents, not the new entrant.

The third step is to identify why industry experts were so wrong. Among these mistakes was to conflate book-buying and browsing, when they are two different things. Add to that the ISBN number book system, that made finding books easier.

Step four is the consideration of the high-impact shift in the industry as a result of these changes. These could include that people are now used to reading text digitally, screen quality is good, tablets are ubiquitous, and e-books are cheaper than paper. This would lead to the conclusion that the digital retailing of books is a permanent fixture.

The last step is to identify why a shift from e-books may occur. Possible answers to this could include that there is a trend towards authentic consumerism according to which, paper books are becoming desirable again. Tablets are increasingly viewed as a distraction, rather than a feature for readers.

The last step in the forward/backward flip method is to consider the probability that the factors identified in the previous step could occur. Additionally, what would be indicators of that change? Who stands to benefit from such a change, and what are they doing to move matters in their direction?

“The techniques described in this book will not automatically make you a great leader, but they will potentially help you navigate your team on a path that avoids this dysfunctional cycle (of unquestionable brilliance and its traps),” Austin asserts. The techniques do reveal the unquestioned assumptions and blind spots that can occur in current initiatives, preferably before they lead to unquestionable failure.

This is a well written and well-researched, practical guide for leaders and trainers of leaders, complete with a dozen or more techniques and even includes tips for facilitators.

Readability Light ----+ Serious
Insights High +---- Low
Practical High +---- Low

Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.